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Phía sau việc Trung Quốc hạ điểm tín nhiệm của Mỹ
Trung Quốc đang tăng cường chiến dịch chinh phục thị trường tài chính thế giới và quảng bá tầm nhìn của họ...

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Trung Quốc đang tăng cường chiến dịch chinh phục thị trường tài chính thế giới và quảng bá tầm nhìn của họ
Hôm 2/8, ngay sau khi Tổng thống Mỹ ký thành luật bản dự thảo nâng trần nợ công của nước này thêm 2.100 tỷ USD, các quan chức và giới chuyên gia Trung Quốc đã lên tiếng khen chê về thỏa thuận này.

Tờ Nhân dân nhật báo, cơ quan ngôn luận của Đảng Cộng sản Trung Quốc có bài viết cho rằng, “vấn đề nợ chủ quyền của Mỹ vẫn chưa được giải quyết. Chúng mới bị trì hoãn mà thôi. Điều đó ảnh hưởng đến phục hồi kinh tế Mỹ và tăng nguy cơ đối với nền kinh tế thế giới”.

Còn theo Tân Hoa xã, đạo luật "không tháo được ngòi quả bom nợ mà chỉ trì hoãn việc nổ ngay lập tức", và rằng, cuộc tranh luận giữa hai đảng Dân chủ và Cộng hòa “cho thấy một quả bom hẹn giờ khác" ngay giữa lòng nước Mỹ, đó là "xu hướng chính trị hoá kinh tế và tầm thường hoá chính trị”.

Chuyên gia kinh tế Zhu Baoliang thuộc Ủy ban Cải cách và phát triển quốc gia Trung Quốc, cho biết Bắc Kinh vẫn chưa hết lo lắng về tình hình tăng trưởng chậm chạp của kinh tế Mỹ sẽ gây ảnh hưởng trực tiếp đến Trung Quốc, chủ nợ lớn nhất của Mỹ.

“Việc cắt giảm thâm hụt ngân sách là quá nhỏ, khó có thể giúp Washington chống đỡ được những khó khăn hơn nữa”, ông nhận định. Theo ông, việc cắt giảm thâm hụt ngân sách 1.000 tỷ USD trong 10 năm tới không đủ để xoay chuyển một cuộc khủng hoảng nợ khác cho tương lai.

Li Xiangyang, chuyên gia nghiên cứu thuộc Viện Khoa học xã hội Trung Quốc đồng tình rằng, việc nâng trần nợ công có thể ngăn chặn được cú sốc lập tức với nền kinh tế Mỹ, song trong tương lai các chính trị gia Mỹ không thể phớt lờ sự quan tâm của các chủ nợ trong khi theo đuổi chính trị nội bộ.

Thống đốc Ngân hàng Trung ương Trung Quốc cũng cho biết, phía Trung Quốc sẽ “theo dõi sát sao” việc thực thi đạo luật về nâng trần nợ công. Đồng thời, ông hy vọng rằng Mỹ sẽ thực hiện các biện pháp chính sách có trách nhiệm để xử lý vấn đề nợ công, trong khi cân nhắc lợi ích của phần còn lại của thế giới.

Như vậy, thỏa thuận nâng trần nợ của Mỹ vẫn chưa hoàn toàn thuyết phục chủ nợ nước ngoài lớn nhất của họ - Trung Quốc. Tuy nhiên, động thái đáng chú ý nhất là việc hôm 3/8, cơ quan đánh giá tín dụng toàn cầu Dagong tại Bắc Kinh đã hạ bậc xếp hạng tín dụng của Mỹ từ A+ xuống còn A với triển vọng tiêu cực.

Trong tuyên bố của mình, cơ quan định mức tín nhiệm Trung Quốc cho rằng, việc Mỹ thông qua đạo luật nâng mức trần nợ công một ngày trước đó, không làm thay đổi xu hướng chung cho thấy mức gia tăng nợ công nhanh hơn tăng trưởng kinh tế Mỹ.

Tuyên bố của Dagong khẳng định, “bằng cách nâng mức trần nợ, Mỹ tạm thời thoát khỏi vỡ nợ nhưng điều này không cải thiện khả năng thanh toán của quốc gia; đúng hơn là gánh nặng nợ của chính phủ sẽ khiến cuộc khủng hoảng nợ công của Mỹ trầm trọng hơn nữa”.

Dagong dự báo tổng nợ liên bang của Mỹ sẽ vượt qua tổng sản phẩm quốc nội (GDP) vào cuối năm 2012. Dagong còn cảnh báo, nếu Mỹ tung ra chính sách nới lỏng định lượng lần 3 (QE3), nền kinh tế thế giới sẽ bị đẩy vào cuộc khủng hoảng toàn diện và kéo theo sự suy yếu của đô la Mỹ.

Theo giới phân tích, việc Dagong cắt giảm điểm tín nhiệm nợ của Mỹ ít có khả năng gây tác động lớn tới thị trường trái phiếu, vì phần lớn giới đầu tư chỉ dựa vào xếp hạng của ba hãng định mức tín nhiệm Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s và Fitch Ratings.

Tờ Le Monde của Pháp dẫn lại lời của người phụ trách công tác thẩm định nợ công của Dagong thừa nhận, "hiện tại, báo cáo của công ty chúng tôi chưa đủ ảnh hưởng để làm thay đổi các thị trường". Ngoài ra, cách đánh giá của Dagong bị nhìn nhận là có vấn đề.

Việc Dagong ca ngợi bài phát biểu kêu gọi cải cách hệ thống đánh giá tín dụng thế giới tại hội nghị G20 năm 2010 của Chủ tịch Hồ Cẩm Đào, khiến nhiều người tin rằng, cơ quan này chịu ảnh hưởng bởi Chính phủ Trung Quốc, dù lãnh đạo Dagong trấn an rằng tổ chức này hoàn toàn độc lập.

Hãng quản lý đầu tư trái phiếu Franklin Templeton cho rằng, xếp hạng của Dagong thiếu sự minh bạch. Tờ Le Monde của Pháp dẫn lời một giáo sư giấu tên thuộc Đại học Bắc Kinh thừa nhận, tại Trung Quốc, một công ty thẩm định tài chính có vẻ không thể hoàn toàn độc lập với chính phủ.

Và lẽ dĩ nhiên, sự phụ thuộc vào chính phủ sẽ ảnh hưởng đến các đánh giá kiểm định của Dagong. Điều này hoàn toàn trái ngược với ở Mỹ, các công ty thẩm định tài chính không ngại đánh giá điểm thấp cho các bang hay thành phố của Mỹ.

Song, theo Le Monde, bằng việc đưa ra các đánh giá về nợ công của Mỹ thông qua công ty xếp hạng tín dụng của riêng mình, Trung Quốc đang tăng cường chiến dịch chinh phục thị trường tài chính thế giới và quảng bá tầm nhìn của họ.

Trung Quốc đã chọn đúng thời điểm để lên tiếng. Bởi lẽ các tổ chức định mức tín nhiệm hàng đầu của Mỹ như Moody’s và Fitch Ratings đang ngày càng bị chỉ trích, và lục địa già châu Âu cũng đang ngấp nghé ý định thành lập tổ chức thẩm định riêng cho mình.

Với 500 nhân viên và khoảng 20 chuyên gia phân tích, Dagong được thành lập năm 1994 và chỉ bắt đầu công tác đánh giá nợ công các nước vào năm 2010, với việc thẩm định nợ công của 50 nước, và năm nay là 67 nước.

Lãnh đạo công ty này cho biết sẽ nhắm đến tất cả các nước trong thời gian tới. Hiện Dagong chủ yếu quan tâm đến châu Phi. Các cơ quan tài chính của Nga và Malaysia cũng đã hướng về Dagong. Theo Le Monde, Dagong dành ưu ái cho các nước mới phát triển, trong đó dĩ nhiên ưu tiên nhất là Trung Quốc.
Nguồn tin : vneconomy.vn

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